Do Heat Pumps Really Work in Buffalo, NY Winters?

Good news for Buffalo residents: modern heat pumps are significantly more advanced than the 25-year-old models designed for warmer climates like Florida. Today’s heat pumps can operate efficiently throughout the year in Western New York, even maintaining partial operation below freezing temperatures.

Modern Heat Pump Efficiency

Modern heat pumps can handle the heating demands of Buffalo winters. This is one of their selling points. To illustrate this, let’s examine the heating load and pump capacity for a hypothetical 2500 sqft home in Cheektowaga, NY, with that is moderately insulated with many windows. This might require 40,000 BTU/hr heating at 5°F. We'll reference data from neep.org, which aggregates heat pump performance information.

Consider a Mitsubishi cold climate heat pump (model # TRUZH0361KA00NA) rated for 40,000 BTU/hr at 47°F and 38,000 BTU/hr heating at 5°F. We see these two data points and 17°F on the graph:

Graph 1: Heating Load vs. Pump Capacity

This graph shows the total heating need of the home (orange and green line) and pump output (maroon dotted line) at various temperatures. Note the 47° and 5° marks.

When Is Supplemental Heating Needed?

Supplemental heat is needed to maintain "ideal" conditions inside. The intersection of the two lines occurs at approximately 10°F. This means supplemental heating might be necessary during extremely cold periods. But how frequent are these cold snaps?

Temperature Data for Winter 2023-2024

Let's look at real temperature data for Cheektowaga, NY during the winter of 2023-2024, sourced from weatherunderground.com. Note the temperatures on the left side of each graph.

December 2023: No Days Below 10°F

January 2024:

Zoomed-In View:

• 3 Days Below 10°F: January 15th, 17th, and 20th.
  

February and March 2024: No Days Below 10°F

In summary, only three days in the past winter required supplemental heating for optimal indoor comfort. The first graph also demonstrates that modern cold climate heat pumps can nearly keep up even at temperatures below 0°F. Only extreme weather events, which challenge almost all HVAC systems, could seriously impact performance.

Proper Sizing and Energy Incentives

It’s crucial to size your heat pump correctly to ensure sufficient capacity on cold days without oversizing. Proper sizing is also necessary to qualify for various energy incentives.

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